What are the unanticipated consequences of Cloud Computing- Part I

Maybe I am just obsessed with cloud computing these days. I guess that after spending more than 18 months researching the topic for our forthcoming book, Cloud Computing for Dummies, I can be excused for my obsession.  Now that I am able to take a step back from the noise of the market, I have been thinking about what this will mean in the next ten years. Consequences of technology adoption are never what we expect. For example, in the late 1970s and early 1980s no one could imagine why anyone would want a personal computer. In fact, the only application people could imagine for a PC was a way to store recipes (I am not making this up). Keep in mind that this was before the first PC-based spreadsheet was designed by Dan Bricklin and Bob Franston(That’s them in the picture) . No one in those days could have predicted that everyone from a CEO to a three year old child would own a personal computer and its use would change the way we conduct business.  (I never did find a recipe storing application).

The same logic can be applied to the Internet. While the Internet has been used 40 years ago by researchers, it was not a commercially viable option until the mid-1990s. In the early days of the Internet it was a sophisticated communications technology with a command line interface. Once the browser came along, businesses tended to use it to share price lists, marketing materials, and job postings. There were certainly message boards but only for the real techies. There were environments such as The Well which was the first online community used primarily by academics and wild-eyed researchers.

In that context, I was thinking about what we might expect to happen with cloud computing? There is a lot to say, so I decided to break this into two parts — each one will have three consequences. Here are today’s top three:

1. Cloud computing will begin to change the way we think of an application. To be truly useful to large groups of individuals and businesses requires economies of scale in terms of massively scaled workloads. The only way to accomplish this is either to cherry pick a few big workloads (like email) or to branch out. That branching out is inevitable and will mean that vendors with cloud offerings with componentize their software offerings into modular services that can be mixed and matched with other services.

2. The prices that vendors will charge for cloud computing services will drop dramatically over the next few years. As prices drop it will become a lot more economically viable to substitute on premise environment for the cloud environment. Today this is not the case; large companies supporting thousands of users in an application environment cannot justify the movement to a cloud platform. What if the costs drop to the point where the economics (with the right workloads) favor cloud based services? When this happens there will be a tipping point that we might not even notice for a few years. But I predict that it will happen. We are already seeing Amazon dropping prices for its EC2 environment based on the competitive threat from Microsoft Azure services announcement.

3. The cloud will change the way we manage data. The traditional way we think about data neatly stored in specific databases to handle a specific business problem will inevitably change.  This won’t be an overnight change but it will happen. Data will increasingly be seen as a reusable resource that can be used in lots of different situations. There will continue to be strategic line of business applications but they will be more systems of record that keep track of the final result of actions that take place dynamically in the cloud. The value of data is not in its tight packaging as we have been used to for decades but it the flexibility to move, transform, and leverage data. The watch word for data in this new model will be Trusted Data in the Cloud.

I would love to know what you think of my top three choices; send me your comments and I will add them to my list for tomorrow.

As we deal with the cloud hype it is too easy to be dismissive and cynical. But we always treat complicated new trends that way — until one day they become the normal way of business and life.

What’s the future of the virtual conference?

I am in the middle of attending Microsoft’s Server Technology Business industry analyst event. I have attended this for many years but this year Microsoft decided that it would be a virtual event. Sessions would be streamed over the web to be watched whenever. One on one sessions were scheduled with executives and customers in 30 minute increments. There was one live session (slides over LiveMeeting). So, what did I think? I had very mixed feelings. I was happy to forgo a plane trip. It is much nicer to sit in my own office and sleep in my own bed. However, I don’t think that the virtual conference itself is ready for prime time. Here are the things that don’t work for me.

There is no substitute for personal interaction with people. When I attend an industry analyst meeting I pay attention to more than the words the speaker is saying. I read the body language. I want to understand how the management team relates to each other. I want to have hallway and lunch time informal conversations. I also want to be able to talk to invited customers informally.

Streaming videos for presentations are a wonderful idea but the vendor providing the videos needs to make sure that this works with many different networks and many different systems. I happen to use a Mac which wasn’t the system of choice for the Microsoft hosts. Even those using Windows and Explorer had trouble with the videos stopping in mid sentence. Even if the vendor tests out the videos internally, they cannot begin to guess the participant’s environment.

Will a typical analyst have the patience to watch five hours of pre-recorded videos? Not likely. I might listen to a video that I am particularly interested in (like cloud computing or service oriented architectures, for example). But I will not listen to all the presentations. There are simply too many distractions and too many things to do. That is the reality of my life as a researcher, analyst, and writer. The reality is that unless you present compelling presentations with information that draws me in you will not capture my attention for long periods of time. The context of this type of meeting hurts the  virtual conference. It is something like watching television. If you start to watch a program and it gets boring, you start to channel surf. If you expect the audience to watch from beginning to end you have to grab their attention.

The reality is you can get away with a lot more in person than you can in a virtual meeting. In an in-person meeting there is enough going on and enough possibilities of interaction that it works. In a virtual meeting you have to pay much more attention to the details. It is show business. The virtual meeting has to be orchestrated and managed so that the seams do not show. Microsoft had a good idea when they planned the meeting. They actually sent each of us a LiveCam so that speakers and audience members could see each other. It was never used.

I think that we will get to the point where we can have meaningful virtual conferences — someday. But they have to have the following characteristics before I will be enthusiastic:

1. Virtual conferences need really good planning and execution. It cannot simply be a disconnected voice with some slides on a shared screen. That is called a conference call.

2. Streaming or live video is wonderful but it needs to have the technology foundation so that it will work no matter what the customer/participant’s environment happens to be.

3. If virtual conferences are to work they have to be conferences.  I don’t think that we have good models for executing virtual conferences that work. They need to be electric, informative, and have interactivity.  Right now the virtual meeting is not a true model. It is simply old execution applied to a new idea.

I think that we will see the emergence of a true virtual conferencing model. I can’t tell you that I can visualize a virtual conference that I would enjoy. Like many analysts, I am not good at passively sitting and watching. I need to be engaged and part of the action. I am not sure how you do this virtually. But I am ready to be surprised and delighted since it would be great not to get on an airplane.

Oracle Plus Sun: What does it mean?

I guess this is one way to start a Monday morning. After IBM decided to pass on Sun, Oracle decided that it would be a great idea. While I have as many questions as answers, here are my top ten thoughts about what this combination will mean to the market:

1. Oracle’s acquisition of Sun definitely shakes up the technology market. Now, Oracle will become a hardware vendor, an operating system supplier, and will own Java.

2. Oracle gets a bigger share of the database market with MySQL. Had IBM purchased Sun, it would have been able to claim market leadership.

3. This move changes the competitive dynamics of the market. There are basically three technology giants: IBM, HP, and Oracle. This acquisition will put a lot of pressure on HP since it partners so closely with Oracle on the database and hardware fronts. It should also lead to more acquisitions by both IBM and HP.

4. The solutions market reigns! Oracle stated in its conference call this morning that the company will now be able to deliver top to bottom integrated solutions to its customers including hardware, packaged applications, operating systems, middleware, storage, database, etc. I feel a mainframe coming on…

5. Oracle could emerge as a cloud computing leader. Sun had accumulated some very good cloud computing/virtualization technologies over the last few years. Sun’s big cloud announcement got lost in the frenzy over the acquisition talks but there were some good ideas there.

6. Java gets  a new owner. It will be interesting to see how Oracle is able to monetize Java. Will Oracle turn Java over to a standards organization? Will it treat it as a business driver? That answer will tell the industry a lot about the future of both Oracle and Java.

7. What happens to all of Sun’s open source software? Back a few years ago, Sun decided that it would open source its entire software stack. What will Oracle do with that business model? What will happen to its biggest open source platform, MySQL? MySQL has a huge following in the open source world. I suspect that Oracle will not make dramatic changes, at least in the short run. Oracle does have open source offerings although they are not the central focus of the company by a long shot. I assume that Oracle will deemphasize MySQL.

8. Solaris is back. Lately, there has been more action around Solaris. IBM annouced support earlier in the year and HP recently announced support services. Now that Solaris has a strong owner it could shake up the dynamics of the operating system world. It could have an impact on the other gorilla not in the room — Microsoft.

9. What are the implications for Microsoft? Oracle and Microsoft have been bitter rivals for decades. This acquisition will only intensify the situation. Will Microsoft look at some big acquisitions in the enterprise market? Will new partnerships emerge? Competition does create strange bedfellows. What will this mean for Cisco, VMWare, and EMC? That is indeed something interesting to ponder.

10. Oracle could look for a services acquisition next. One of the key differences between Oracle and its two key rivals IBM and HP is in the services space. If Oracle is going to be focused on solutions, we might expect to see Oracle look to acquire a services company. Could Oracle be eyeing something like CSC?

I think I probably posed more questions than answers. But, indeed, these are early days. There is no doubt that this will shake up the technology market and will lead to increasing consolidation. In the long run, I think this will be good for customers. Customers do want to stop buying piece parts. Customers do want to buy a more integrated set of offerings. However, I don’t think that any customer wants to go back to the days where a solution approach meant lock-in. It will be important for customers to make sure that what these big players provide is the type of flexibility they have gotten used to in the last decade without so much pain.

Ten things I learned about Citrix..and a little history lesson

I attended Citrix’s industry analyst event a couple of weeks ago. I meant to write about Citrix right after the event but you know how things go. I got busy.  But I am glad that I took a little time because it has allowed me the luxury of thinking about Citrix as a company and where they have been and where they are headed.

A little history, perhaps? To understand where Citrix is headed, a little history helps. The company was founded in 1989 by a former IBMer who was frustrated that his ideas weren’t used at Big Blue.  The new company thought that it could leverage the future power of OS/2 (anyone remember that partnership between IBM and Microsoft?).  Citrix actually licensed OS/2 code from Microsoft and intended to provide support for hosting OS/2 on platforms like Unix.  When OS/2 failed to gain market traction, Citrix continued its partnership with Microsoft provide terminal services for both DOS and Windows.  When Citrix got into financial trouble in the mid-1990s, Microsoft invested $1 million in the company.  With this partnership firmly in place, Citrix was able to OEM its terminal servicer product to Microsoft which helped give the company financial stability.
The buying spree. What is interesting about Citrix is how it leveraged this position to begin buying companies that both supported its flagship business and move well beyond it.  For example, in 2003 it acquired Expertcity which had two products: GoToMyPC and GoToMeeting.  Both products mirrored the presentation server focus of the company and enhanced the Microsoft relationship. In a way, you could say that Citrix was ahead of the curve in buying this company when it did.
While the market saw Citrix as a stodgy presentation focused company things started to change in 2005. Citrix started to make some interesting acquisitions including NetScaler, an appliance intended to accelerate application performance,  and Teros, a web application firewall. There were a slew of acquisitions in 2006.  The first of the year was Reflectant, a little company in Lowell, Massachusetts that collected performance data on PCs.  The company had a lot of other technology assets in the performance management area that it was anxious to put to use.  Later in the year the company bought Orbital Data, a company that could optimize the delivery of applications to branch office users over wide area networks (WANs).  Citrix also picked up Ardence, which provided operating system and application streaming technology for Windows and Linux.
Digging into Virtualization. Clearly, Citrix was moving deeper into the virtualization space with these acquisitions and was starting to make the transition from the perception that it was just about presentation services. But the big bombshell came last year when the company purchased XenSource for $500M in cash and stock.   This acquisition moved Citrix right into the heart of the server, desktop and storage virtualization world.  Combine this acquisition with the strong Microsoft partnership and suddenly Citrix has become a power in the data center and virtualization market.

The ten things I learned about Citrix. You have been very patient, so now I’ll tell you what the things I thought were most significant about Citrix’s analyst meeting.

Number One:  It’s about the marketing.  Citrix is pulling together the pieces and presenting them as a platform to the market. My only wish is that some company would not use the “Center” naming convention for their product line.  But they have called this Delivery Center. The primary message is that Citrix will make distributed technology easier to deliver. The focus will be on provisioning, publish/subscribe, virtualization, and optimization over the network.

Number Two: Merging enterprise and consumer computing. Citrix’s strategy is to be the company that closes the gap between enterprise computing and consumer computing.  CEO, Mark Templeton firmly believes that the company’s participation in both markets makes it uniquely positioned to straddle these worlds.  I think that he is on to something.  How can you really separate the personal computing function from applications and distributed workloads in the enterprise?

Number Three.  Partnerships are a huge part of the strategy. Citrix has done an excellent job on the partnering front.  It has over 6,000 channel partners.  It has strong OEM agreements with HP and Dell and Microsoft.  Microsoft has made it clear that it intends to leverage the Citrix partnership to take on VMWare in the market.

Number Four: Going for more. The company has a clear vision around selecting adjacent markets to deliver an end-to-end solutions.  Clearly, there will be more acquisitions coming but at the same time, it will continue to leverage partnerships.

Number Five: It’s all about SaaS. Citrix has gained a lot of experience in the software as a service model over the past few years with its online division (GoToMyPC and GoToMeeting).  The company will invest a lot more in the SaaS model.

Number Six. And its all about the Cloud. Just like everyone else Citrix will move into Cloud Computing.  Because its NetScaler appliance is so prevalent in many SaaS environments, it believes that it has the opportunity to become a market leader. It is counting on its virtualization software, its workflow and orchestration technology to help them become a player.

Number Seven:  Going for the gold. With the acquisition of XenSource combined with its other assets, Citrix can take on VMWare for supremacy in virtualization.  This is clearly an ambitious goal given VMWare’s status in the market.

Number Eight.  Going after the Data Center market. Citrix believes that it has the opportunity to be a key data center player. It is proposing that it can lead its data center strategy by starting with centralization through virtualization of servers, desktops, and operating systems and provide dynamic provisioning, workflow, and workload management.  Citrix has an opportunity but it is a complicated and crowded market.

Number Nine: Desktop graphic virtualization.   Project Apollo, Citrix’s desktop graphics virtualization project seems to be moving full steam ahead and could add substantial revenue to the bottom line over time.  However, there is a lot of emerging competition in this space so Citrix will have to move fast.

Number Ten: Size matters. And speaking of revenue — Citrix is ambitious. While its revenues have topped $1 billion, it hopes to triple that number over the next few years. And then, what? Who knows.

Can HP Lead in Virtualization Management?

HP has been a player in the virtualization market for quite a while.  It has offered many hardware products including its server blades have given it a respectable position in the market. In addition, HP has done a great job being an important partner to key virtualization software players including VMWare, Red Hat, and Citrix. It is also establishing itself as a key Microsoft partner as it moves boldly into virtualization with HyperV.  Thus far, HP’s virtualization strategy did not focus on software. That has started to change.  Now, if this had been the good old days, I think we would have seen a strategy that focused on cooler hardware and data center optimization. Now, don’t get me wrong — HP is very much focused on the hardware and the data center. But now there is a new element that I think will be important to watch.

HP is finally leveraging its software assets in the form of virtualization management.  If I were cynical I would say, it’s about time.  But to be fair, HP has added a lot of new assets to its software portfolio in the last couple of years that make a virtualization management strategy more possible and more believable.

It is interesting that when a company has key assets to offer customers, it often strengthens the message. I was struck by what I thought was a clear message that a found on one of their slides from their marketing pitch, “Your applications and business services don’t care where resources are, how they’re connected or how they’re managed, and neither should you. ”  This statement struck me as precisely the right message in this crazy overhyped virtualization market.  Could it be that HP is becoming a marketing company?

As virtualization goes mainstream, I predict that management of this environment will become the most important issue for customers. In fact, this is the message I have gotten load and clear from cusotmers trying to virtualize their applications on servers.  Couple this will the reality that no company virtualizes everything and even if they did they still have a physical environment to manage.  Therefore, HP focuses its strategy on a plan to manage the composite of physical and virtual.  Of course, HP is not alone here. I was at Citrix’s industry analyst meeting last week and they are adopting this same strategy. I promise that my next blog will be about Citrix.

HP is calling its virtualization strategy its Business Management Suite.  While this is a bit generic, HP is trying to leverage the hot business service management platform and wrap virtualization with it.  Within this wrapper, HP is including four componements:

• Business Service Management — the technique for linking services across the physical and virtual worlds. This is intended to monitor the end-to-end health of the overall environment.
• Business Service Automation — a technique for provisioning assets for distributed computing
• IT Service Management — a technique for discovering what software is present and what licenses need to be managed
• Quality Management — a technique for testing, scheduling, and provisioning resources across platforms. Many companies are starting to use virtualization as a way of testing complex composite applications before putting them into production. Companies are testing for both application quality and performance under different loads.

I am encouraged that HP seems to understand the nuances of this market.  HP’s strategy is to position itself as the “Switzerland” of the virtualization management space.  It is therefore creating a platform that includes infrastucture to manage across IBM, Microsoft, VMWare, Citrix, and Red Hat.  Therefore, it is positioning its management assets from its heritage software (OpenView) and its acquisitions to execute this strategy. For example, its IT Service Management offering is intended to manage the compliance with license terms and conditions as well as charge backs across hetergenous environments. It’s Asset manager is intended to track virtualized assets through its discovery and dependency mapping tools.  HP’s Operations Manager has extended its performance agents so that it can monitor capabilities from virtual machines to hypervisors.  The company’s SiteScope provides agentless monitoring of hypervisors for VMWare.  The HP Network Node manager has extended support for monitoring virtual networks.

HP’s goal to to focus on the overall health of these distributed, virtualized services from an availability, performance, capacity planning, end user experience, and service level management perspective.  It is indeed an ambitious plan that will take some time to develop but it is the right direction. I am particularly impressed with the partner program that HP is evolving around its CMDB (Configuration Management Database).  It is partnering with VMWare to embark on a joint development initiative to provide a federated CMDB that can collect information from a variety of hosts and guest hosts in an on demand approach. Other companies such as Red Hat and Citrix have joined the CMDB program.

This is an interesting time in the virtualization movement.  As virtualization matures, companies are starting to realize that simply virtualizing an application on a server does not by itself save the time and money they anticipated.  The world is a lot more complicated than that.  Management wants to understand how the entire environment is part of delivering value.  For example, an organization might put all of its call center personnel on a virtualized platform which works fine until an additional 20 users with heavy demands on the server suddenly causes performance to falter.  In other situations, everything works fine until there is a software error somewhere in the distributed environment.  The virtualized environment suddenly fails and it is very difficult for IT operations to diagnose the problem. This is when management stops getting excited about how wonderful it is that they can virtualize hundreds of users onto a single server and starts worrying about the quality of service and the reputation of the organization overall.

The bottom line is that HP seems to be pulling the right pieces together for its virtualization management strategy. It is indeed still early. Virtualization itself is only the tip of the distributed computing marketplace.  HP will have to continue to innovate on its own while investing in its partner ecosystem. Today partners are eager to work with HP because it is a good partner and non-threatening.  But HP won’t be alone in the management of virtualization.  I expect that other companies like IBM and Microsoft will be very aggressive in this market.  HP has a little breathing room right now that it should take advantage of before things change again. And they always change again.

Can Microsoft Pull Virtualization, SOA, Management, and SaaS Together?

For three years in a row I have attended Microsoft’s server and tools analyst briefing. This is the vision of Microsoft that focuses on the server side of the company. A few years ago I predicted that this part of the company would get my vote in terms of growth and potential. I stand by my position. While Microsoft’s desktop division is suffering through a mid-life crisis, the server side is flexing its muscles. The transition towards power on the enterprise side is complicated for Microsoft. The challenges facing Microsoft is how to make the transition from its traditional role as champion and leader of the programmer to a leader in the next generation of distributed computing infrastructure. If Microsoft can make this transition in a coherent way it could emerge in an extremely powerful position.

So, I will provide what I think are the five most opportunities that the server and tools division of Microsoft is focused on.

Opportunity One. Virtualization as a foundation. The greatest opportunity, ironically, is also the greatest threat. If customers decide to virtualize rather than to buy individual licenses, Microsoft could suffer – especially in the desktop arena. At the same time, Microsoft clearly sees the benefits in becoming a leader in virtualization. Therefore, virtualization is becoming the focus of the next generation of computing infrastructure both on the server and the desktop. Microsoft is making many investments in virtualization including the desktop, the hypervisor, the applications, the operating system, graphics, and overall management (including Identity Management). One smart move that Microsoft has made is to invest in its hypervisor intended to come out soon as HyperV. Rather than offering HyperV as a standalone product, Microsoft is adding the hypervisor into the to the fabric of Microsoft’s server platform. This is a pragmatic and forward thinking approach. If I were an independent hypervisor vendor I would hit the road right about now. Microsoft’s philosophy around enterprise computing is clear: unified and virtualized.

Microsoft’s management believes that within five to ten years all servers will be virtualized. To me this sounds like a logical assumption both in terms of manageability and power consumption. So, how does Microsoft gain supremacy in this market? Clearly, it understands that it has to take on the market leader: VMware. It hopes to do this in two ways: providing overall management of the management framework (including managing VMware) and though its partnership with Citrix. There was a lot of buzz for a while that Microsoft would buy Citrix. I don’t think so. The relationship is advantageous to both companies so I expect that Microsoft will enjoy the revenue and Citrix will enjoy the benefits of the Microsoft market clout.

Microsoft has been on an acquisition binge in the virtualization market. While they haven’t created the buzz of the Yahoo attempted acquisition, they are important pieces to support the new strategy. Investments include: Kidaro for desktop virtualization management (that sits on the virtual PC and is intended to provide application compatibility on the virtual desktop. Another investment, Calista Technologies, provides graphics virtualization that offers the full “vista experience” for the remote desktop. Last year Microsoft purchased Softricity, which offers application virtualization and OS streaming. Microsoft has said that it has sold 6.5 million Softricity seats (priced at $3.00 per copy). Now, add in the HyperV and the ID management offerings and things get very interesting.

One of the smartest things that Microsoft is doing is to position virtualization within the context of a management framework. In fact, in my view, virtualization is simply not viable without management. Microsoft positioned virtualization around this portfolio of offerings in the context of a management framework (System Center) for managing both the physical and virtual environment for customers.

Opportunity Two. Managing a combined physical and virtual world. Since Microsoft came out with SMS in the late 1990s, it has wanted to find a way to gain a leadership role in management software. It has been a complex journey and is still a work in progress. It is indeed a time of transition for Microsoft. The container for its management approach is System Center. Today with System Center, Microsoft has its sights on managing not only Windows systems but also a customer’s heterogeneous environment. Within the environment Microsoft has included identity management (leveraging active director as the management framework including provisioning and certificate management). This is one area where Microsoft seems to be embracing heterogeneity in a big way. Like many of the infrastructure leaders that Microsoft competes with, Microsoft’s leaders are talking about the ability to create a management framework that is “state aware” so that the overall environment is more easily self-managed. Microsoft envisions a world where through virtualization there are basically a pool of resources that are available and can be managed based on business policies and service levels. They talked a lot about automating the management of resources. Good thinking, but certainly not unique.

Microsoft is making a significant investment in management – especially in areas such as virtualization management, virtual machine management. More importantly, through its Zen-based connections (via Citrix) Microsoft will offer connectors to other system management platforms such as IBM’s Tivoli and HP’s OpenView. That means that Microsoft has ambitions to manage large-scale data centers. Microsoft is building its own data centers that will be the foundation for its cloud offerings.

Opportunity Three. Creating the next generation dynamic platform. Every company I talk to lately is looking to own the next generation dynamic computing platform. This platform will be the foundation for the evolution of Service Oriented Architectures, social networks, and software as a service. But, obviously, this is complicated especially if you assume that you want to achieve ubiquitous integration between services that don’t know each other. Microsoft’s approach to this (they call it Oslo) is a based on a modeling language. Microsoft understands that achieving this nirvana requires a way to establish context. The world we live in is a web of relationships. Somehow in real life we humans are able to take tiny cues and construct a world view. Unfortunately, computers are not so bright. So, Microsoft is attacking this problem by developing a semantic language that will be the foundation for a model-based view of the world. Microsoft intends to leverage its network of developers to make this language based approach the focal point of a new way of creating modular services that can dynamically change based on context.

This is indeed an interesting approach. It is also a bottoms-up approach to the problem of semantic modeling. While Microsoft does have a lot of developers who will want to leverage this emerging technology I am concerned that a bottoms-up approach could be problematic. This must be combined with a tops-down approach if this approach is to be successful.

Opportunity Four. Software as a Service Plus. I always thought that Microsoft envied AOL in the old days when it could get customers to pay per month while Microsoft sold perpetual licenses that might not be upgraded for years. Microsoft is trying to build a case that customers really want a hybrid environment so they can use an application on premise and then enable their mobile users to use this same capability as a service. Therefore, when Microsoft compares itself to companies like Salesforce.com, Netsuites, and Zoho they feel like Microsoft has a strategic advantage because they have full capabilities whether online or off line. But Microsoft is taking this further by taking services such as Exchange and offering that as a service. This will be primarily focused on the SMB market and for remote departments of large companies.

This is only the beginning from what I am seeing. Services such as Live Mesh, announced in April, is a services based web platform that helps developers with context over the web. Silverlight, also announced this spring is intended as a web 2.0 platform. Microsoft is taking these offerings plus others such as Visual Earth, SQL Server data services, cloud-based storage, and BizTalk services and offerings them as components in a service platform – both on its own and with its partners.

Opportunity Five. Microsoft revs up SOA. Microsoft has been slow to get on the SOA bandwagon. But it is starting to make some progress as it readies its registry/repository. This new offering will be built on top of SQL server and will include a UDDI version 3 service registry. For Master Data Management (MDM) – single view of the customer, Microsoft will create an offering based on SQLServer. It also views Sharepoint as a focal point for MDM. It intends to build an entity data model to support its MDM strategy.

While Microsoft has many of the building blocks it needs to create a Service Oriented Architecture strategy, the company still has a way to go. This is especially true in how the company creates a SOA framework so that customers know how to leverage its technology to move through the life cycle. Microsoft is beginning to talk a lot about business process including putting a common foundation for service interoperability by supporting key standards such as WS* and its own Windows Communications Foundation services.

The real problem is not in the component parts but the integration of those parts into a cohesive architectural foundation that customers can understand and work with. Also, Microsoft still lacks the in-depth business knowledge that customers are looking for. It relies on its integration partners to provide the industry knowledge.

The bottom line
Microsoft has made tremendous progress over the past five years in coming to terms with new models of computing that are not client or server centric but are dynamic. I perceive that the thinking is going in the right direction. Bringing process thinking with virtualization, management, and federated infrastructure and software as a service are all the right stuff. The question will be whether Microsoft can put all the pieces together that doesn’t just rely on its traditional base of developers to move it forward to the next generation. Microsoft has a unique opportunity to take its traditional customer base of programmers and move them to a new level of knowledge so they can participate in their vision of Dynamic IT.

The Desktop as a Service: Can Desktone be a Focal Point?

I have been thinking a lot about the evolution of virtualization lately and so I was intrigued when a company I had never heard of called Desktone asked to come in for a briefing. When I heard that the company specialized on desktop virtualization I was intrigued. I was even more interested when I learned that the founder came from Softricity, the OS virtualization company bought by Microsoft.

What I liked about Desktone is its focus on desktops as a service. The company has been around since 2006 and has its developers in Shaghai. The company has taken a $17 million investment round. I liked David Marshall’s overview of the technology.

What is important about what Desktone has to say is that the desktop environment can become a service offering. While I don’t expect the masses of Microsoft Windows desktops to all move en masse to desktop as a service, it is an approach that is a leading indicator of where the desktop is headed. Think back to when Windows became the platform for desktop computing. In those days, customers wanted a easy to use and pragmatic way to write letters, create a spreadsheet, follow up on email, and surf the web.

What has changed over the past five years is the growing complexity of the desktop environment. Simply put, the desktop moved from its role as a terminal for corporate applications and a tool for productivity applications into a true computing platform. The implications are complex and startling. Customers who thought of their desktop as personal where suddenly forced to deal with everything from viruses, security of stored data, updates to the operating system, the need to coordinate between service components on the desktop and the server. Now, add to this, the need to add more power on the desktop to support the growing needs for a growing number graphics and computing requirements — and of course power.

What Desktone is proposing is that service providers establish themselves as the provider of desktop capability. Clearly, an emerging player like Desktone couldn’t take on this goal but its partners are stepping up. In my discussion with CEO, Harry Ruda, the company has signed on partners including IBM, Verizon, Softbanks, and T-Systems. These companies all plan to use desktone to offer the virtual desktop as a subscription based service. Therefore, the desktone service provides an annuity stream for companies like Verizon as an alternative to the corporate desktop. Desktone has signed up a few high profile customers like Merill Lynch. Merrill Lynch are signing up for a very simple reason — they simply cannot get any more power in their data centers — even if they wanted to pay for it. Likewise, Verizon, which has substantial data center capacity in New York City simply cannot take on new co-location customers without a managed services approach.

What I found very interesting about Desktone is how the company positions the technology. The company seems want to from the traditional approaches to desktop virtualization right to the world of cloud computing — of course, for the desktop world. I am providing a link to Dana Gardner’s blog on the topic. Unlike some of the clouds that we hear a lot about, Desktone’s version is based on a private cloud that will be owned and run by the serivce providers. The approach is intended to treat the virtual desktop as PCs connected to a service provider that provides the “virtual container” for the desktops. This solves a lot of problems for both Desktone and service providers. In essence, the end customer is responsible for their own operating system and PC application licenses. Desktone is provide a virtual desktop grid — what Desktone called an access fabric. This fabric is intended to provide a management platform for desktop virtualization.

Desktone has an interesting opportunity. It is stretching what we have traditionally thought about for desktop virtualization. While desktop virtualization is not new but it is changing dramatically. One only has to look at the work that VMware, Citrix, IBM, Microsoft and HP are doing — to mention but a few of the players that understand the importance of virtualizing the device in front of the customer. I think that desktop as a service is the right conversation for the industry to be having just about now.

When not to salvage the legacy application

One of the hardest things for organizations to do is to retire old applications. Unlike hardware that tends to be replaced on a regular cycle, old software sticks around way too long. It definitely over stays its welcome. I remember when I worked at John Hancock decades ago and watching as departments struggled to replace aging systems. While they were ready and willing to make the change, they often didn’t know precisely how these old systems worked. The developers never documented what they wrote and those people had retired years earlier.

Now you would think that the problem had gone away. In reality, the problem got worse with the advent of client/server computing where there was less structure applied to the development process. I came across a very old article I wrote back in 1996 that talked about a lot of those issues (please ignore the picture). Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse, web based development came along. Instead of having a few hundred developers, the web brought the advent of thousands of developers all provide changes and updates to applications. We are now at a cross roads that is quite unique.

While we still have many aging applications that cannot be easily updated, we also have the need to move to Web 2.0 to create Rich Internet applications (RIA). Web 2.0 offers a way to dramatically transform the user experience. Organizations are looking to this approach to development to make access to knowledge and information much more immediate and intuitive than ever before. But the transition isn’t easy.

I got thinking a lot about the transition from client/server applications and old web based applications when I met with Nexaweb a few weeks ago. The company has been around since 2000 and specializes in the Web 2.0 space. While there has been a lot of hype around Web 2.0 it actually is a very pragmatic technology infrastructure. While I think that a lot of customers assume that you can just approach Web 2.0 as though it were a simple web application. The reality is quite different. In fact, good Web 2.0 applications have to be well architected. What I liked about what Nexaweb is doing is their approach to application modernization with a Web 2.0 spin. In essence, Nexaweb is focused on modernization of aging client/server applications by providing tooling that documents the existing code. It is designed to identify bad code and provides a tool to generate a model driven architecture. Like any good consulting organization, Nexaweb has leveraged best practices used to help its consulting clients move old applications to Web 2.0. Nexaweb is selling a set of productivity tools that can generate a model driven architecture. It is intended to generate code as part of this process. The company claims that it can reduce the cost of transforming old code by as much as 70 percent.

The new product called Nexaweb’s Enterprise Web Suite including a UML modeling tool, a reporting tool that identifies repetitive processes, and code that is no longer used. Clearly, Nexaweb isn’t the only company taking advantage of modeling tools and an architectural approach. But the fact that the company is focused on helping companies transform their aging client/server applications into modular, service oriented approach is a step forward. It is one of the set of companies focused on not just updating applications by transforming into Web 2.0. What stands out is the fact that Nexaweb seems to be combining application transformation into business services (can you say Service Oriented Architectures). However, I must add that IBM has been on this track for quite a few years. Through its industry models, IBM has been helping companies transform its aging areapplications into industry specific business services. In addition, Microsoft’s Silverlight and Adobe’s Air are adding a new level of sophistication to the momentum. WaveMaker, that I discussed in an earlier entry is making a contribution as well.

The trend is clear and it is good for customers. We are finally seeing software companies providing a path to moving code into the new world that is based on reusable, modular services that are architected. The next stage in the movement towards a service oriented architecture is applying this approach to the new generation of Web 2.0. Let me add a disclaimer — this isn’t magic. There is hard work here. None of these approaches or tools are automatic. They give customers a head start but there is hard work to be done. The alternative is to hold your breath and hope that things don’t break too quickly. There are so many promises of easy solutions to hard problems. There are solutions and tools that take the drudgery out of leaving legacy applications behind. But there is worthwhile hard work that really has to be done.

Goodbye Netscape…Hello Google

I was looking through various online newsletters this morning and noticed a small item that said that AOL would no longer support the Netscape browser. Not a big story, of course but symbolic. There was a time when Netscape had ambitions to take on Microsoft. I’m adding a link here to a blog I wrote back in 2005 about this topic. But it took a few more years before the real upstart showed up to do to Microsoft what the Netscape team thought they could do — challenge Microsoft on the desktop.

Later Netscape was purchased by AOL and in 2000, AOL merged with Time Warner. The irony is interesting. The idea at that time was that AOL, Netscape, and Time Warner would combine to create a media juggernaut. Again, the germ of the idea was right — the timing and the players were wrong.

Now this got me thinking about Google and the fact that the purchase of DoubleClick was approved. I was reading an interesting column by Clint Bolton who writes the GoogleWatch blog for EWeek. Basically, Clint talks about the arguments that Microsoft makes to the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) about why Google’s purchase of DoubleClick would hurt the competitive environment. It is indeed an interesting situation to see Microsoft worry about the market power of Google.

It is noteworthy that Google — so far anyway — accomplished with a good deal of finesse what Netscape was never able to do. Netscape took on the giant Microsoft directly. In essence, once Microsoft was directly challenged by Netscape, it was granted permission to be aggressive. Contrast this to Google’s style. Google initially walked softly into the market with a “simple search engine” strategy that has blossomed into a conquer the world strategy. Ironically, Google is much more like a media company than a technology company.

Top 10 Predictions: Innovation, ROI, Cloud Computing and more…

I love the end of the year. I get to sneak out of the office for a few days and stay off of airplanes. I also have a chance to look ahead to the new year. I like making predictions. Sometimes, I am years ahead of the market; other times I am able to hit the nail on the head. So, for what it is worth, here are my top ten predictions for 2008 (Hey, how did that happen? What happened to 2007? I thought it just started!)

1. There will be two hot buzzwords this year: innovation and ROI. Companies want to find ways to leverage the technology they have invested in, to do things in totally new ways. At the same time, companies are nervous about investing in technology. They want assurances that there will be a return on their investment — quickly. So, you will see a lot of discussion of both issues. But here is one prediction that I guarantee: most of the proof about innovation and ROI will be fluffy and devoid of any real meat!

2. Here come the clouds! I think that cloud computing, one of the latest versions of virtualization, will become one of the hottest trends of 2008. Any infrastructure company you can name will come up with a cloud computing strategy. No single leader will emerge in 2008 but you won’t be able to move without bumping into the hype.

3. Software as a Service goes mainstream. Sure, SalesForce.com has been the industry darling over the past few years. There can be no doubt that SalesForce CEO Marc Benioff’s imaginative adventure hit the bulls-eye. But I expect that in 2008 there will be numerous mainstream, innovative approaches to Software as a Service. We already saw SAP announce SAP By Design as its entry into the SaaS market. Expect a lot more from mainstream players. Now add a social networking twist and things really get interesting.

4. The world gets more virtual. VMWare’s spectacular IPO made the rest of the market wakeup and smell the roses. Maybe there is money in this virtualization stuff after all. There will be three virtualization market segments: client, server, and application. I can’t decide which one I think is more important. How about all three!

5. More vendors will make more acquisitions (that’s another one you can take to the bank). Yes, Oracle will certainly make more acquisitions, but I don’ t think that BEA will be in the mix. Nor will HP buy BEA. However, I do predict that BEA will probably go private. I predict that HP will buy more software companies, especially in the data management area. IBM will continue its buying especially in software — more companies in what they call information management, more in systems management, and in the collaboration space. I expect to see more action from EMC as well primarily in management and security. The list is too long for this entry but stay tuned, it is going to be a very, very busy year.

6. So, I didn’t mention Microsoft yet. This is the year when Microsoft’s server/enterprise business will get the respect it deserves. Therefore, I expect to see Microsoft continue to make small but strategic acquisitions that will fit into the forthcoming Oslo strategy. I would expect to see Microsoft look for information management picks (among others). However, I don’t expect that Microsoft will be buying big, traditional software companies. I expect that Microsoft will make interesting acquisitions in web collaboration, social networking, and advertising.

7. Online goes off-line. Companies like Zoho are starting to gain traction because they can provide both online services combined with offline usage. Being able to continue working when you can’t get connectivity is the tipping point for these collaboration offerings to challenge Microsoft in the office and collaboration space.

8. This is the year that Service Oriented Architectures (SOA) moves from IT strategy to business strategy. Therefore, SOA will officially move out of the hype cycle and into mainstream. CEOs and CIOs have bought into the importance of consistent business oriented services. Therefore, expect that customers will get down to serious business of moving out of pilots into slow, deliberate implementations. This doesn’t make for splashy headlines but it does make business sense.

9. Google will continue to move into any market that leverages the advertising revenue model — including collaboration software and various cloud computing options. No surprise there. I do not expect that Google will make a bid for the traditional enterprise applications. I do expect to see a strengthening partnership with IBM.

10. Partner ecosystems will reach a new level of intensity this year. Enterprise software leaders will be working hard to make sure the most popular emerging players support their platforms. They will be joined in the mix by Software as a Service players who are trying to build up their arsenal of partners. Emerging players will live or die by their ability to sign the best partnerships. At the same time, enterprise software leaders are upping the requirements for participation. The bottom line is: what’s in it for me?

11. I know I promised 10 predictions but I have to add one more. There will be at least a few trends that will come out of the blue. But that is what makes things interesting!