Tectonic shifts: HP Plus 3Com versus Cisco Plus EMC

Just when it looked clear where the markets were lining up around data center automation and cloud computing, things change. I guess that is what makes this industry so very interesting.  The proposed acquisition by HP of 3Com is a direct challenge to Cisco’s network management franchise. However, the implications of this move go further than what meets the eye.  It also pits HP in a direct path against EMC with its Cisco partnership. And to make things even more interesting, it also puts these two companies in a competitive three way race against IBM and its cloud/data center automation strategy. And of course, it doesn’t stop there. A myriad of emerging companies like Google and Amazon want a larger share of the enterprise market for cloud services. Companies like Unisys and CSC that has focused on the outsourced secure data centers are getting into the act.

I don’t think that we will see a single winner — no matter what any one of these companies will tell you.  The winners in this market shift will be those companies can build a compelling platform and a compelling value proposition for a partner ecosystem.  The truth about the cloud is that it is not simply a network or a data center. It is a new way of providing services of all sorts that can support changing customer workloads in a secure and predictable manner.

In light of this, what does this say for HP’s plans to acquire 3Com? If we assume that the network infrastructure is a key component of an emerging cloud and data center strategy, HP is making a calculated risk in acquiring more assets in this market.  The company that has found that its ProCurve networking division has begun gaining traction. HP ProCurve Networking is the networking division of HP.  The division includes network switches, wireless access points, WAN routers, and Access Control servers and software.   ProCurve competes directly with Cisco in the networking switch market. When HP had a tight partnership with Cisco, the company de-emphasized the networking. However, once Cisco started to move into the server market, the handcuffs came off. The 3Com acquisition takes the competitive play to a new level. 3Com has a variety of good pieces of technology that HP could leverage within ProCurve. Even more significantly, it picks up a strong security product called TippingPoint, a 3Com acquisition. TippingPoint fills a critical hole in HP’s security offering. TippingPoint, offers network security offerings including intrusion prevention and a product that inspects network packets.  The former 3Com subsidiary has also established a database of security threats based a network of external researchers.

But I think that one of the most important reasons that HP bought 3Com is its strong relationships in the Chinese market. In fiscal year 2008 half of 3Com’s revenue came from its H3C joint venture with Chinese vendor, Huawei Technology. Therefore, it is not surprising that HP would have paid a premium to gain a foothold in this lucrative market. If HP is smart, it will do a good job leveraging the many software assets to build out both its networking assets as well as beefing up its software organization. In reality, HP is much more comfortable in the hardware market. Therefore, adding networking as a core competency makes sense. It will also bolster its position as a player in the high end data center market and in the private cloud space.

Cisco, on the other hand, is coming from the network and moving agressively into the cloud and the data center market.  The company has purchased a position with VMWare and has established a tight partnership with EMC as a go to market strategy.  For Cisco, it gives the company credibility and access to customers outside of its traditional markets. For EMC, the Cisco relationship strengthens its networking play.  But an even bigger value for the relationship is to present a bigger footprint to customers as they move to take on HP, IBM, and the assortment of other players who all want to win.  The Cisco/EMC/VMware play is to focus on the private cloud.  In their view a private cloud is very similar to a private, preconfigured data center.  It can be a compelling value proposition to a customer that needs a data center fast without having to deal with a lot of moving parts.  The real question from a cloud computing perspective is the key question: is this really a cloud?

It was inevitable that this quiet market dominated by Google and Amazon would heat up as the cloud becomes a real market force.  But I don’t expect that HP or Cisco/EMC will have a free run. They are being joined by IBM and Microsoft — among others. The impact could be better options for customers and prices that invariably will fall. The key to success for all of these players will be how well they manage what will be an increasingly heterogeneous, federated, and highly distributed hardware and software world. Management comes in many flavors: management of these highly distributed services and management of the workloads.

Musings from VMworld Conference

I spent longer than I typically do at a conference last week when I went to VMworld.  It was quite an active event — lots of customers, lots of cloud technology providers, and lots of integrators. What I took away from the conference where three major observations: the customers attending the conference are busily virtualizing servers; VMware is trying hard to position itself for leadership in the both virtualization and the cloud; well-established vendors are deepening their relationship with VMware while emerging vendors are trying to either fill a void or knock an existing leader out of the ring.

One of the things that really stood out for me was the stage of maturity of the customers. In speaking with attendees, it was clear to me that many of the VMware customers are in the early stages of moving to the cloud. In fact, most of them are not even thinking about clouds — other than rain clouds. The people attending this year’s event are typical of an emerging market. They are the hard core developers who have to deal with technology without the benefit of levels of abstraction. These are hard working developers who have deep expertise in virtualizing servers. Many of these developers have gained a lot of benefit from some of the key innovations that VMware has made over the years. One excellent example is VMware’s product called  Vmotion which enables a developer to migrate a running virtual machine from one physical server to another with no service disruption. I started thinking about what implementing virtualization means to developers. I got thinking about this because I picked up a handy little guide at the conference called vSphere 4.0 Quick Start Guide Shortcuts down the path to Virtualization . What struck me from glancing through the book was the level of programming required configure and implement virtual machines. It is not for the faint hearted. Yes, when you’re done with the hard work of separating the software environment from the hardware, magic starts to happen.

It was interesting to juxtapose this bottoms up virtualization focus with emerging cloud technologies.  Cloud computing is clearly emerging as a strategy for many of the vendors and many of the bosses of the participants at the conference. The cloud leverages virtualization as an enabler of the cloud but it is clearly the beginning and not the end. We have seen this so many times before with so many technology trends. You start with the sophisticated developers who want to work at the metal. They get great performance and great benefit for their companies. And then, technology matures and gets abstracted. Here is a good example. In the really, really early days of graphical interfaces, sophisticated programmers wanted nothing to do with an abstracted interface. The command line interface was the one and only way to go. After all, this command level interface gave them control that they could not image having from a graphical interface. How many programmers today would go back to a command line interface? (probably a few — but no one’s perfect).

So, I was left with the feeling that we are in between generations of technology at this year’s VMworld. The old world of virtualizing servers is about to be surplanted by the world of abstracting the data center itself. Virtualization is one of the pillars of this transformation but it not the end game.

Oracle Plus Sun: What does it mean?

I guess this is one way to start a Monday morning. After IBM decided to pass on Sun, Oracle decided that it would be a great idea. While I have as many questions as answers, here are my top ten thoughts about what this combination will mean to the market:

1. Oracle’s acquisition of Sun definitely shakes up the technology market. Now, Oracle will become a hardware vendor, an operating system supplier, and will own Java.

2. Oracle gets a bigger share of the database market with MySQL. Had IBM purchased Sun, it would have been able to claim market leadership.

3. This move changes the competitive dynamics of the market. There are basically three technology giants: IBM, HP, and Oracle. This acquisition will put a lot of pressure on HP since it partners so closely with Oracle on the database and hardware fronts. It should also lead to more acquisitions by both IBM and HP.

4. The solutions market reigns! Oracle stated in its conference call this morning that the company will now be able to deliver top to bottom integrated solutions to its customers including hardware, packaged applications, operating systems, middleware, storage, database, etc. I feel a mainframe coming on…

5. Oracle could emerge as a cloud computing leader. Sun had accumulated some very good cloud computing/virtualization technologies over the last few years. Sun’s big cloud announcement got lost in the frenzy over the acquisition talks but there were some good ideas there.

6. Java gets  a new owner. It will be interesting to see how Oracle is able to monetize Java. Will Oracle turn Java over to a standards organization? Will it treat it as a business driver? That answer will tell the industry a lot about the future of both Oracle and Java.

7. What happens to all of Sun’s open source software? Back a few years ago, Sun decided that it would open source its entire software stack. What will Oracle do with that business model? What will happen to its biggest open source platform, MySQL? MySQL has a huge following in the open source world. I suspect that Oracle will not make dramatic changes, at least in the short run. Oracle does have open source offerings although they are not the central focus of the company by a long shot. I assume that Oracle will deemphasize MySQL.

8. Solaris is back. Lately, there has been more action around Solaris. IBM annouced support earlier in the year and HP recently announced support services. Now that Solaris has a strong owner it could shake up the dynamics of the operating system world. It could have an impact on the other gorilla not in the room — Microsoft.

9. What are the implications for Microsoft? Oracle and Microsoft have been bitter rivals for decades. This acquisition will only intensify the situation. Will Microsoft look at some big acquisitions in the enterprise market? Will new partnerships emerge? Competition does create strange bedfellows. What will this mean for Cisco, VMWare, and EMC? That is indeed something interesting to ponder.

10. Oracle could look for a services acquisition next. One of the key differences between Oracle and its two key rivals IBM and HP is in the services space. If Oracle is going to be focused on solutions, we might expect to see Oracle look to acquire a services company. Could Oracle be eyeing something like CSC?

I think I probably posed more questions than answers. But, indeed, these are early days. There is no doubt that this will shake up the technology market and will lead to increasing consolidation. In the long run, I think this will be good for customers. Customers do want to stop buying piece parts. Customers do want to buy a more integrated set of offerings. However, I don’t think that any customer wants to go back to the days where a solution approach meant lock-in. It will be important for customers to make sure that what these big players provide is the type of flexibility they have gotten used to in the last decade without so much pain.

Ten things I learned about Citrix..and a little history lesson

I attended Citrix’s industry analyst event a couple of weeks ago. I meant to write about Citrix right after the event but you know how things go. I got busy.  But I am glad that I took a little time because it has allowed me the luxury of thinking about Citrix as a company and where they have been and where they are headed.

A little history, perhaps? To understand where Citrix is headed, a little history helps. The company was founded in 1989 by a former IBMer who was frustrated that his ideas weren’t used at Big Blue.  The new company thought that it could leverage the future power of OS/2 (anyone remember that partnership between IBM and Microsoft?).  Citrix actually licensed OS/2 code from Microsoft and intended to provide support for hosting OS/2 on platforms like Unix.  When OS/2 failed to gain market traction, Citrix continued its partnership with Microsoft provide terminal services for both DOS and Windows.  When Citrix got into financial trouble in the mid-1990s, Microsoft invested $1 million in the company.  With this partnership firmly in place, Citrix was able to OEM its terminal servicer product to Microsoft which helped give the company financial stability.
The buying spree. What is interesting about Citrix is how it leveraged this position to begin buying companies that both supported its flagship business and move well beyond it.  For example, in 2003 it acquired Expertcity which had two products: GoToMyPC and GoToMeeting.  Both products mirrored the presentation server focus of the company and enhanced the Microsoft relationship. In a way, you could say that Citrix was ahead of the curve in buying this company when it did.
While the market saw Citrix as a stodgy presentation focused company things started to change in 2005. Citrix started to make some interesting acquisitions including NetScaler, an appliance intended to accelerate application performance,  and Teros, a web application firewall. There were a slew of acquisitions in 2006.  The first of the year was Reflectant, a little company in Lowell, Massachusetts that collected performance data on PCs.  The company had a lot of other technology assets in the performance management area that it was anxious to put to use.  Later in the year the company bought Orbital Data, a company that could optimize the delivery of applications to branch office users over wide area networks (WANs).  Citrix also picked up Ardence, which provided operating system and application streaming technology for Windows and Linux.
Digging into Virtualization. Clearly, Citrix was moving deeper into the virtualization space with these acquisitions and was starting to make the transition from the perception that it was just about presentation services. But the big bombshell came last year when the company purchased XenSource for $500M in cash and stock.   This acquisition moved Citrix right into the heart of the server, desktop and storage virtualization world.  Combine this acquisition with the strong Microsoft partnership and suddenly Citrix has become a power in the data center and virtualization market.

The ten things I learned about Citrix. You have been very patient, so now I’ll tell you what the things I thought were most significant about Citrix’s analyst meeting.

Number One:  It’s about the marketing.  Citrix is pulling together the pieces and presenting them as a platform to the market. My only wish is that some company would not use the “Center” naming convention for their product line.  But they have called this Delivery Center. The primary message is that Citrix will make distributed technology easier to deliver. The focus will be on provisioning, publish/subscribe, virtualization, and optimization over the network.

Number Two: Merging enterprise and consumer computing. Citrix’s strategy is to be the company that closes the gap between enterprise computing and consumer computing.  CEO, Mark Templeton firmly believes that the company’s participation in both markets makes it uniquely positioned to straddle these worlds.  I think that he is on to something.  How can you really separate the personal computing function from applications and distributed workloads in the enterprise?

Number Three.  Partnerships are a huge part of the strategy. Citrix has done an excellent job on the partnering front.  It has over 6,000 channel partners.  It has strong OEM agreements with HP and Dell and Microsoft.  Microsoft has made it clear that it intends to leverage the Citrix partnership to take on VMWare in the market.

Number Four: Going for more. The company has a clear vision around selecting adjacent markets to deliver an end-to-end solutions.  Clearly, there will be more acquisitions coming but at the same time, it will continue to leverage partnerships.

Number Five: It’s all about SaaS. Citrix has gained a lot of experience in the software as a service model over the past few years with its online division (GoToMyPC and GoToMeeting).  The company will invest a lot more in the SaaS model.

Number Six. And its all about the Cloud. Just like everyone else Citrix will move into Cloud Computing.  Because its NetScaler appliance is so prevalent in many SaaS environments, it believes that it has the opportunity to become a market leader. It is counting on its virtualization software, its workflow and orchestration technology to help them become a player.

Number Seven:  Going for the gold. With the acquisition of XenSource combined with its other assets, Citrix can take on VMWare for supremacy in virtualization.  This is clearly an ambitious goal given VMWare’s status in the market.

Number Eight.  Going after the Data Center market. Citrix believes that it has the opportunity to be a key data center player. It is proposing that it can lead its data center strategy by starting with centralization through virtualization of servers, desktops, and operating systems and provide dynamic provisioning, workflow, and workload management.  Citrix has an opportunity but it is a complicated and crowded market.

Number Nine: Desktop graphic virtualization.   Project Apollo, Citrix’s desktop graphics virtualization project seems to be moving full steam ahead and could add substantial revenue to the bottom line over time.  However, there is a lot of emerging competition in this space so Citrix will have to move fast.

Number Ten: Size matters. And speaking of revenue — Citrix is ambitious. While its revenues have topped $1 billion, it hopes to triple that number over the next few years. And then, what? Who knows.

Can HP Lead in Virtualization Management?

HP has been a player in the virtualization market for quite a while.  It has offered many hardware products including its server blades have given it a respectable position in the market. In addition, HP has done a great job being an important partner to key virtualization software players including VMWare, Red Hat, and Citrix. It is also establishing itself as a key Microsoft partner as it moves boldly into virtualization with HyperV.  Thus far, HP’s virtualization strategy did not focus on software. That has started to change.  Now, if this had been the good old days, I think we would have seen a strategy that focused on cooler hardware and data center optimization. Now, don’t get me wrong — HP is very much focused on the hardware and the data center. But now there is a new element that I think will be important to watch.

HP is finally leveraging its software assets in the form of virtualization management.  If I were cynical I would say, it’s about time.  But to be fair, HP has added a lot of new assets to its software portfolio in the last couple of years that make a virtualization management strategy more possible and more believable.

It is interesting that when a company has key assets to offer customers, it often strengthens the message. I was struck by what I thought was a clear message that a found on one of their slides from their marketing pitch, “Your applications and business services don’t care where resources are, how they’re connected or how they’re managed, and neither should you. ”  This statement struck me as precisely the right message in this crazy overhyped virtualization market.  Could it be that HP is becoming a marketing company?

As virtualization goes mainstream, I predict that management of this environment will become the most important issue for customers. In fact, this is the message I have gotten load and clear from cusotmers trying to virtualize their applications on servers.  Couple this will the reality that no company virtualizes everything and even if they did they still have a physical environment to manage.  Therefore, HP focuses its strategy on a plan to manage the composite of physical and virtual.  Of course, HP is not alone here. I was at Citrix’s industry analyst meeting last week and they are adopting this same strategy. I promise that my next blog will be about Citrix.

HP is calling its virtualization strategy its Business Management Suite.  While this is a bit generic, HP is trying to leverage the hot business service management platform and wrap virtualization with it.  Within this wrapper, HP is including four componements:

• Business Service Management — the technique for linking services across the physical and virtual worlds. This is intended to monitor the end-to-end health of the overall environment.
• Business Service Automation — a technique for provisioning assets for distributed computing
• IT Service Management — a technique for discovering what software is present and what licenses need to be managed
• Quality Management — a technique for testing, scheduling, and provisioning resources across platforms. Many companies are starting to use virtualization as a way of testing complex composite applications before putting them into production. Companies are testing for both application quality and performance under different loads.

I am encouraged that HP seems to understand the nuances of this market.  HP’s strategy is to position itself as the “Switzerland” of the virtualization management space.  It is therefore creating a platform that includes infrastucture to manage across IBM, Microsoft, VMWare, Citrix, and Red Hat.  Therefore, it is positioning its management assets from its heritage software (OpenView) and its acquisitions to execute this strategy. For example, its IT Service Management offering is intended to manage the compliance with license terms and conditions as well as charge backs across hetergenous environments. It’s Asset manager is intended to track virtualized assets through its discovery and dependency mapping tools.  HP’s Operations Manager has extended its performance agents so that it can monitor capabilities from virtual machines to hypervisors.  The company’s SiteScope provides agentless monitoring of hypervisors for VMWare.  The HP Network Node manager has extended support for monitoring virtual networks.

HP’s goal to to focus on the overall health of these distributed, virtualized services from an availability, performance, capacity planning, end user experience, and service level management perspective.  It is indeed an ambitious plan that will take some time to develop but it is the right direction. I am particularly impressed with the partner program that HP is evolving around its CMDB (Configuration Management Database).  It is partnering with VMWare to embark on a joint development initiative to provide a federated CMDB that can collect information from a variety of hosts and guest hosts in an on demand approach. Other companies such as Red Hat and Citrix have joined the CMDB program.

This is an interesting time in the virtualization movement.  As virtualization matures, companies are starting to realize that simply virtualizing an application on a server does not by itself save the time and money they anticipated.  The world is a lot more complicated than that.  Management wants to understand how the entire environment is part of delivering value.  For example, an organization might put all of its call center personnel on a virtualized platform which works fine until an additional 20 users with heavy demands on the server suddenly causes performance to falter.  In other situations, everything works fine until there is a software error somewhere in the distributed environment.  The virtualized environment suddenly fails and it is very difficult for IT operations to diagnose the problem. This is when management stops getting excited about how wonderful it is that they can virtualize hundreds of users onto a single server and starts worrying about the quality of service and the reputation of the organization overall.

The bottom line is that HP seems to be pulling the right pieces together for its virtualization management strategy. It is indeed still early. Virtualization itself is only the tip of the distributed computing marketplace.  HP will have to continue to innovate on its own while investing in its partner ecosystem. Today partners are eager to work with HP because it is a good partner and non-threatening.  But HP won’t be alone in the management of virtualization.  I expect that other companies like IBM and Microsoft will be very aggressive in this market.  HP has a little breathing room right now that it should take advantage of before things change again. And they always change again.

The Desktop as a Service: Can Desktone be a Focal Point?

I have been thinking a lot about the evolution of virtualization lately and so I was intrigued when a company I had never heard of called Desktone asked to come in for a briefing. When I heard that the company specialized on desktop virtualization I was intrigued. I was even more interested when I learned that the founder came from Softricity, the OS virtualization company bought by Microsoft.

What I liked about Desktone is its focus on desktops as a service. The company has been around since 2006 and has its developers in Shaghai. The company has taken a $17 million investment round. I liked David Marshall’s overview of the technology.

What is important about what Desktone has to say is that the desktop environment can become a service offering. While I don’t expect the masses of Microsoft Windows desktops to all move en masse to desktop as a service, it is an approach that is a leading indicator of where the desktop is headed. Think back to when Windows became the platform for desktop computing. In those days, customers wanted a easy to use and pragmatic way to write letters, create a spreadsheet, follow up on email, and surf the web.

What has changed over the past five years is the growing complexity of the desktop environment. Simply put, the desktop moved from its role as a terminal for corporate applications and a tool for productivity applications into a true computing platform. The implications are complex and startling. Customers who thought of their desktop as personal where suddenly forced to deal with everything from viruses, security of stored data, updates to the operating system, the need to coordinate between service components on the desktop and the server. Now, add to this, the need to add more power on the desktop to support the growing needs for a growing number graphics and computing requirements — and of course power.

What Desktone is proposing is that service providers establish themselves as the provider of desktop capability. Clearly, an emerging player like Desktone couldn’t take on this goal but its partners are stepping up. In my discussion with CEO, Harry Ruda, the company has signed on partners including IBM, Verizon, Softbanks, and T-Systems. These companies all plan to use desktone to offer the virtual desktop as a subscription based service. Therefore, the desktone service provides an annuity stream for companies like Verizon as an alternative to the corporate desktop. Desktone has signed up a few high profile customers like Merill Lynch. Merrill Lynch are signing up for a very simple reason — they simply cannot get any more power in their data centers — even if they wanted to pay for it. Likewise, Verizon, which has substantial data center capacity in New York City simply cannot take on new co-location customers without a managed services approach.

What I found very interesting about Desktone is how the company positions the technology. The company seems want to from the traditional approaches to desktop virtualization right to the world of cloud computing — of course, for the desktop world. I am providing a link to Dana Gardner’s blog on the topic. Unlike some of the clouds that we hear a lot about, Desktone’s version is based on a private cloud that will be owned and run by the serivce providers. The approach is intended to treat the virtual desktop as PCs connected to a service provider that provides the “virtual container” for the desktops. This solves a lot of problems for both Desktone and service providers. In essence, the end customer is responsible for their own operating system and PC application licenses. Desktone is provide a virtual desktop grid — what Desktone called an access fabric. This fabric is intended to provide a management platform for desktop virtualization.

Desktone has an interesting opportunity. It is stretching what we have traditionally thought about for desktop virtualization. While desktop virtualization is not new but it is changing dramatically. One only has to look at the work that VMware, Citrix, IBM, Microsoft and HP are doing — to mention but a few of the players that understand the importance of virtualizing the device in front of the customer. I think that desktop as a service is the right conversation for the industry to be having just about now.

Top 10 Predictions: Innovation, ROI, Cloud Computing and more…

I love the end of the year. I get to sneak out of the office for a few days and stay off of airplanes. I also have a chance to look ahead to the new year. I like making predictions. Sometimes, I am years ahead of the market; other times I am able to hit the nail on the head. So, for what it is worth, here are my top ten predictions for 2008 (Hey, how did that happen? What happened to 2007? I thought it just started!)

1. There will be two hot buzzwords this year: innovation and ROI. Companies want to find ways to leverage the technology they have invested in, to do things in totally new ways. At the same time, companies are nervous about investing in technology. They want assurances that there will be a return on their investment — quickly. So, you will see a lot of discussion of both issues. But here is one prediction that I guarantee: most of the proof about innovation and ROI will be fluffy and devoid of any real meat!

2. Here come the clouds! I think that cloud computing, one of the latest versions of virtualization, will become one of the hottest trends of 2008. Any infrastructure company you can name will come up with a cloud computing strategy. No single leader will emerge in 2008 but you won’t be able to move without bumping into the hype.

3. Software as a Service goes mainstream. Sure, SalesForce.com has been the industry darling over the past few years. There can be no doubt that SalesForce CEO Marc Benioff’s imaginative adventure hit the bulls-eye. But I expect that in 2008 there will be numerous mainstream, innovative approaches to Software as a Service. We already saw SAP announce SAP By Design as its entry into the SaaS market. Expect a lot more from mainstream players. Now add a social networking twist and things really get interesting.

4. The world gets more virtual. VMWare’s spectacular IPO made the rest of the market wakeup and smell the roses. Maybe there is money in this virtualization stuff after all. There will be three virtualization market segments: client, server, and application. I can’t decide which one I think is more important. How about all three!

5. More vendors will make more acquisitions (that’s another one you can take to the bank). Yes, Oracle will certainly make more acquisitions, but I don’ t think that BEA will be in the mix. Nor will HP buy BEA. However, I do predict that BEA will probably go private. I predict that HP will buy more software companies, especially in the data management area. IBM will continue its buying especially in software — more companies in what they call information management, more in systems management, and in the collaboration space. I expect to see more action from EMC as well primarily in management and security. The list is too long for this entry but stay tuned, it is going to be a very, very busy year.

6. So, I didn’t mention Microsoft yet. This is the year when Microsoft’s server/enterprise business will get the respect it deserves. Therefore, I expect to see Microsoft continue to make small but strategic acquisitions that will fit into the forthcoming Oslo strategy. I would expect to see Microsoft look for information management picks (among others). However, I don’t expect that Microsoft will be buying big, traditional software companies. I expect that Microsoft will make interesting acquisitions in web collaboration, social networking, and advertising.

7. Online goes off-line. Companies like Zoho are starting to gain traction because they can provide both online services combined with offline usage. Being able to continue working when you can’t get connectivity is the tipping point for these collaboration offerings to challenge Microsoft in the office and collaboration space.

8. This is the year that Service Oriented Architectures (SOA) moves from IT strategy to business strategy. Therefore, SOA will officially move out of the hype cycle and into mainstream. CEOs and CIOs have bought into the importance of consistent business oriented services. Therefore, expect that customers will get down to serious business of moving out of pilots into slow, deliberate implementations. This doesn’t make for splashy headlines but it does make business sense.

9. Google will continue to move into any market that leverages the advertising revenue model — including collaboration software and various cloud computing options. No surprise there. I do not expect that Google will make a bid for the traditional enterprise applications. I do expect to see a strengthening partnership with IBM.

10. Partner ecosystems will reach a new level of intensity this year. Enterprise software leaders will be working hard to make sure the most popular emerging players support their platforms. They will be joined in the mix by Software as a Service players who are trying to build up their arsenal of partners. Emerging players will live or die by their ability to sign the best partnerships. At the same time, enterprise software leaders are upping the requirements for participation. The bottom line is: what’s in it for me?

11. I know I promised 10 predictions but I have to add one more. There will be at least a few trends that will come out of the blue. But that is what makes things interesting!

 

EMC’s Innovation Journey: from storage to information centric computing

Today I am at EMC’s annual analyst meeting. Just like IBM, EMC’s theme is innovation. EMC is on an interesting journey from its roots in storage managment. EMC has been on a journey for a number of years with acquisitions in information and content management (Documentum and eRoom) and security (RSA, Verid), management software (Smarts, and NLayers), virtualization (VMware), Software as a Service (with the Mozy acquisition). Initially, it looked as though EMC was going to position itself as a technology holding company. I have changed my mind after listening to the management team talking about EMC’s evolution. Over the past four years EMC has spent an average of $2 billion a year acquiring 30 software companies. So far, EMC has spent $8 billion acquiring software companies. I expect that we will see more over the coming years.

Joe Tucci, EMC’s CEO provided some interesting insights about EMC’s transition. Clearly, it was a lot easier in the days when the company could only worry about storing and retrieving information. Now that EMC has gone well beyond that vision, Tucci has done a good job of both focusing on the core competencies of the company. Tucci has made this look easy. But, in fact, it is hard. In essence, what he has done is to keep to its knitting — buying software that is adjacent and complementary to storage. And this makes sense — storage is about putting information somewhere (obviously an over simplification). So, not surprisingly, the theme is information.

Now, EMC is trying to take its core assets focused on “information” so that there is cross leverage across product lines. For example, EMC is leveraging its security software in order to provide higher levels of security in storage and document management. I think that Tucci put it well, “the information infrastructure is a shared set of products, serivces, and best practices for storing, protecting, optimizing, and leveraging information.”

Where is EMC taking this strategy? Clearly the Mozy acquisition demonstrates that EMC is looking at the SMB market and at Software as a Service (SaaS). How about information and storage in the cloud? Why not.

I expect to see EMC focus a lot of attention on unstructured and semi-structured information. One executive during the meeting commented that 90 percent of a customer’s information is unstructured in a variety of formats (images, documents, etc.). Not surprising, this unstructured data has huge storage requirements. Now think about the security of this information including rules for who is allowed to look at, copy, and modify that information.

And, of course, virtualization of information, storage, and collaboration isn’t lose on EMC — with VMware. VMware is clearly one of the jewels in the crown and I expect that EMC is going to find more and more ways to leverage virtualization across its portfolio.

According to Jeff Nick, EMC’s CTO, EMC is focused from a strategy perspective on infrastructure, information assets, applications, and interaction. From his perspective, security is at the core of this approach — not an unreasonable assumption. I like his view on taking a holistic view of how all of these components are interrelated. Taking a holistic view of information management is music to my ears! I also liked the fact that Nick spent considerable time talking about the fact that you can only provide this holistic approach through a service oriented approach. He went on to point out there is a whole different way of managing based on SOA. In this way, you take applications and operating systems and leverage them as elements and virtualize them in the context of how they are used within the customer environment.

This thinking is good but it will require that a lot of pieces come together. Clearly, this isn’t a short term strategy. If EMC can pull this off, it will be quite interesting for the company’s future.

The bottom line is that I see EMC as a company that is changing itself from a storage leader to one that is reaching beyond its comfort zone. Suddenly, its acquisitions make a lot more sense. However, the road will not be especially easy. There is a lot of work to do on information management itself — including the entire areas of meta data and master data management. EMC doesn’t have a master data management strategy and it does not control the databases and data stores where this information lives. Clearly, the key players in this market will not necessarily want EMC to emerge as the leader. In the management space, EMC has made some good strides in leveraging its Smarts and NLayers acquisitions to make its products more manageable. Will it strive to be a management vendor and take on players like HP and IBM? Not clear yet.

EMC is a well managed company that has made good acquisitions and managed their integration into the company fabric well.