Predictions for 2010: clouds, mergers, social networks and analytics

Yes, it is predictions time. Let me start by saying that no market change happens in a single year. Therefore, what is important is to look at the nuance of a market or a technology change in the context of its evolution. So, it is in this spirit that I will make a few predictions. I’ve decided to just list my top six predictions (I don’t like odd numbers). Next week I will add another five or six predictions.

  1. Cloud computing will move out of the fear, uncertainty and doubt phase to the reality phase for many customers. This means that large corporations will begin to move segments of their infrastructure and applications to the cloud. It will be a slow but steady movement. The biggest impact on the market is that customers will begin putting pressure on vendors to guarantee predictability and reliability and portability.
  2. Service Management will become mainstream. Over the past five years the focus of service management has been around ITIL (Information Technology Infrastructure Library) processes and certification. There is a subtle change happening as corporations are starting to take a more holistic view of how they can effectively manage how everything that has a sensor, an actuator, or a computer interface is managed. Cloud computing will have a major impact on the growing importance of service management.
  3. Cloud service providers will begin to drop their prices dramatically as competition intensifies. This will be one of the primary drivers of growth of the use of cloud services. It will put a lot of pressure on smaller niche cloud providers as the larger companies try to gain control of this emerging market.
  4. It is not a stretch to state that the pace of technology acquisitions will accelerate in 2010.  I expect that HP, IBM, Cisco, Oracle, Microsoft, Google, and CA will be extremely active. While it would be foolhardy to pick a single area, I’ll go out on a limb and suggest that security, data center management, service management, and information management will be the focus of many of the acquisitions.
  5. Social Networking will become much more mainstream than it was in 2009. Marketers will finally realize that blatant sales pitches on Twitter or Facebook just won’t cut it.  We will begin to see markets learn how to integrate social networking into the fabric of marketing programs. As this happens there will be hundreds of new start ups focused on analyzing the effectiveness of these marketing efforts.
  6. Information management is at the cusp of a major change. While the individual database remains important, the issue for customers is focus on the need to manage information holistically so that they can anticipate change. As markets grow increasingly complex and competitive, the hottest products in 2010 will those that help companies anticipate what will happen next.  So expect that anything with the term predictive analytics to be hot, hot, hot.
  1. December 15, 2009 at 7:49 pm

    Judith

    I would be interested to hear your views on the impact cloud computing will have on outsourcing. Do you think cloud computing will diminish the need for outsourcing?

  2. December 15, 2009 at 9:22 pm

    This is a key question that you ask. Yes, I do think that Cloud Computing will have a dramatic impact on outsourcing. Traditional outsourcing will continue for a long time to come. First, not all workloads are appropriate for the cloud. An older application that serves the needs of a specialized group of professionals will not benefit from the economics of cloud computing. These applications are better served by traditional outsourcing. In another sense cloud computing is a form of outsourcing. I suspect that outsourcing companies will offer a range of different services that will include traditional running of complex data centers to what we think of as cloud workloads. These vendors will take advantage of automation, provisioning technologies, self-service portals, etc. It may actually make outsourcing vendors more profitable and more flexible.

  3. December 16, 2009 at 8:25 am

    Judith. Thanks for your insight. I think service provisioning is the only way that outsourcers can add value, otherwise it will be more economical for organisations to buy cloud services directly.

  4. December 16, 2009 at 9:20 am

    I disagree. Companies will discover that simply buying services directly from a cloud provider may add additional levels of complexity. How do you effectively manage lots of different services combined with internal services to gain the right service level? Outsourcing companies will have to evolve to solve new problems created by cloud providers.

  5. December 17, 2009 at 7:22 am

    So you see outsourcers as becoming cloud service aggregators? Perhaps there is an opportunity for them to add value in cloud service integration?

    I still can’t see that this will make up for the revenues they lose if they no longer host & manage servers.

  6. December 17, 2009 at 7:27 am

    I think that outsourcers will become cloud service providers and integrators. There is more complexity in making all the pieces work together. And, of course, the entire IT market isn’t going to magically become cloud based over night. However, I do think that it will be a difficult transition over time for the less innovative outsourcing companies.

  1. December 31, 2009 at 1:14 pm

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: